SORS: Mechanisms and predictability of the 2023 record increase in global temperature

Date: 19/Dec/2024 Time: 15:00

Place:

[HYBRID] Room 1-2-1, BSC Main Building and Online via Zoom

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Abstract

Global mean temperature rapidly warmed during 2023, leading to the warmest year on record at 1.45°C above pre-industrial climate, the causes of which are still under debate. Here we explore the likelihood, mechanisms, and predictability of the rapid warming with the use of a CMIP model suite of large ensemble simulations and a boosted forecast ensemble initialized on Nov 1 2022 with the EC-EARTH fully coupled model run at BSC. We find that CMIP models, on the whole, simulate the observed year-to-year warming between 2022 and 2023 as a 1 in 10000 year event, and 5 out of 8 models never simulate such a large year-to-year increase in global temperature. The forecast ensemble-mean predicts about 60% of the observed warming during 2023. The remaining 40% can be accounted for by internally-generated variability by the forecast ensemble, with members that simulate a strong ENSO event during 2023 and positive net shortwave anomalies in nothern latitudes more likely to capture the observed warming. The model also predicts that 2024 will surpass 1.5°C, and forecast members that predict warmer conditions in 2023 also predict a warmer 2024.
 
Short Bio

I am a research associate professor in atmospheric sciences at The University of Washington in the USA, completed my PhD in atmospheric sciences in 2013 at the same institution, and an MPhil at the University of Cambridge in 2005. In 2015, I was a visiting research associate at the Catalan Institute for Climate Science. 

I work in the field of high latitude climate and sea ice predictability, variability, and trends, using both modeling tools and observations. Past work has focused on assessing causes of sea ice variability and trends in both the Arctic and Antarctic, investigating the impacts of Arctic cyclones on sea ice, identifying sources of sea ice predictability, reconstructing high latitude climate records, and utilizing satellite retrievals to understand the impact of waves on sea ice properties. In recent years, I have started investigating extreme events such as heatwaves and storms, studying their causes, predictability, and climate change attribution, while using these events to validate climate models.

 

Speakers

Speaker: Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth. Research Associate Professor at the University of Washington's Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Host: Stefano Materia. Recognised Researcher. Climate Variability and Change, Earth Sciences, BSC