Projects
The climate system is changing rapidly and some regions have seen increases in extremes beyond what is expected from climate model simulations. To support targeted climate adaptation strategies, EXPECT will enable trustworthy assessments and predictions of regional climate change including extremes by developing a prototype operational capability for integrated attribution...
The aim of the BOREAS project is to blend knowledge from climate predictions and projections to make the Spanish energy sector more resilient to climate variability and climate change, hence contributing to the better management of the current climate and energy crises.
Spain has the objective to reach climate neutrality by 2050, which is part of the...
Cold air outbreaks are typical of the mid-latitude climate during the cold season. Their relevance relies on the threat to life caused by the long-lasting periods with abnormally low temperatures, the potential of damage to crops, and the occurrence of high-impact weather events such as heavy snow and low visibility during blizzards.
Previous studies...
This proposal shapes the next (third) phase of the ESiWACE Centre of Excellence. As the ability to run Earth system models at ~1km resolution efficiently on EuroHPC supercomputers has already been established in previous phases for specific model configurations, and as developments are now picked up by science-driven projects, this proposal will focus on the support of the...
ASPECT aims to setup and demonstrate a seamless climate information (SCI) system with a time horizon up to 30yr and accompanied with underlying research and using climate information for sectoral applications ( middle-ground level 1). The project's goal is to improve existing climate prediction systems and to merge their outputs across timescales together with climate...
Precipitation directly affects societies and ecosystems, with extremely wet and dry conditions posing potential risks. Our ability to predict variations in precipitation on seasonal, inter-annual and decadal time scales is limited, and state-of-the-art prediction systems exhibit low skill in predicting precipitation despite substantial developments and improvements of the...
Compound events (CEs) can pose significant threats to societies, economies and ecosystems around the world, especially when amplified by anthropogenic climate change (ACC). There is therefore a strong need for skilled, reliable and actionable predictions of how CEs are expected to change in the next decades to help governments and stakeholders implement robust adaptation...
Our changing climate is already affecting millions of people across the world and will continue to do so in the coming decades. Successful adaptation strategies require the best available estimate of plausible future climate trajectories. Traditionally, this information has been mostly based on results from climate model projections that follow different future socio-economic...
Seasonal Forecasts are critical tools for early-warning decision support systems, that can help reduce the related risk associated with hot or cold weather and other events that can strongly affect a multitude of socio-economic sectors. Recent advances in both statistical approaches and numerical modeling have improved the skill of Seasonal Forecasts. However, especially in...
There is a clear and urgent need to deepen our understanding on the occurrence and the cascading effects of droughts. This project considers seasonal climate predictions in the Iberian peninsula (Spain and Portugal) that are projected to move towards a drier climate (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2014, Donelly et al. 2017). Using the Iberian peninsula as a case study provides an...